"1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
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mrblobby (2 posts) Click to EMail mrblobby Click to send private message to mrblobby Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-05-02, 08:07 PM (CDST)
"1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Hi folks,

I am having a bit of fun here, but, after getting a little stoned and eating loads of Jammie Dodgems I started to read my emails. Anyhow, there was a reply to an email I sent regarding certain Herpes stuff, questions about statistical info and on whether condoms and anti v's actually have an accumulative affect in preventing transmission.

To cut a long story short, I got to playing with some numbers...

Remember that 8 month study recently published where there were about 1700 couples, one HSV- the other HSV+ and they went into transmission rates and things. Well basically after the 8 months were up, the results came in as so...

Women passing it to men = 3%

Men passing it to women = 8%

.... this was with no anti virals and no condoms (and whilst NOT HAVING SEX DURING AN OUTBREAK). I think there was actually some who used condoms - but that doesn't help with 'stoners maths' - so we'll leave it out.

Further more, in transmission factors,

antivirals are thought to half the odds of transmission to/from both sex's

and condoms see a 12 fold reduction in transmission from men to women (now wome can work it out for themselves cause I am too stoned to diverge).

Then over an 8 month period, IF THE ADDITIVE EFEECTS WERE 100% (again stoner maths) of anti v's and condoms male to female transmission rate would be at 0.333% (8%/12/2 )

Now, if a couple has an average of 3 bonks a week, over 8 months that would be...

8 months * 4.333 weeks/months * 3 bonks/week = 103.92 bonks

(note to physicists: you see how the units balaced across the equation there - cool!)...

Lets say it is 103 bonks, that could, if all precautions were taken (and assuming the additive affect was 100%), lead to a theoretical transmission of 0.33%

which in turn would lead to a single bonk transmission rate of 0.0032038%... lets say 0.003%

which is 3 in 100,000

which is again, when rounded down, a 1 in 30,000 transmission per shag rate for m-f.

And if the additive effects of condoms and anti v's aren't 100%... well lets see what happens

say 20% additive effect occurs... 1 in 6,000

a 10% additive effect... 1 in 3,000

50%... 1 in 15,000

hmm

MrB

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission CAT11 Dec-06-02 1
   RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission MrBlobby (Guest) Dec-06-02 2
       RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission nice guy (Guest) Dec-06-02 3
           RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission MrBlobby (Guest) Dec-06-02 4
               RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission CAT11 Dec-07-02 5
       RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission MizTree Dec-07-02 6
       RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission Della Dec-07-02 7
 RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission Tourmalinejade (Guest) Dec-13-02 8
   RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission MrBlobby (Guest) Dec-13-02 9
       RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission Juno1 (Guest) Dec-13-02 10
           RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission Juno1 (Guest) Dec-13-02 11
 RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission yada yada (Guest) Feb-16-03 12
   RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission windy Feb-16-03 13
       No pipe dream... MrBlobby (Guest) Feb-17-03 14
           Only 4,000 ?? Rajah Feb-17-03 15
               within one decimal place... MrBlobby (Guest) Feb-18-03 16
                   I'm inclined to agree with that in general.. Rajah Feb-18-03 18
   RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission Someone (Guest) Feb-18-03 17
       RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission JJJ25 Feb-19-03 19
           just had another thought actually... pipe dreams MrBlooby (Guest) Feb-22-03 20
               RE: just had another thought actually... pipe drea... windy Feb-22-03 21
                   good thoughts MrBlobby (Guest) Feb-22-03 22
 Can I nominate my own thread for the HOF? MrBlobby (Guest) Jul-14-03 23
   Sure.. No reason why not. Rajah Jul-14-03 24

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CAT11 (1722 posts) Click to EMail CAT11 Click to send private message to CAT11 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-06-02, 01:04 AM (CDST)
1. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
You should get stoned more often.

Here is one for you. If the condoms have a 3% failure rate and the pill 5-.1% failure rate, lets say 5, what are the odds of getting pregant using both?

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-06-02, 11:17 AM (CDST)
2. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Don't forget, stats are just stats - I now a few guys (2) who always 'bagged up' and they both have a kid each... how unlucky, but it happens... as all things tend to do.

IF condoms are 97% effective for birth control

and the pill is 95% effective....

and the effects are 100% additive (if)

then they could be 99.85% effective, in combination.

BUT - as with my stoners maths from last night, if one part of the puzzle is out of place, the whole thing comes down like a house of cards...

eg improper condom use, splitting, missing a dose of the pill - whatever... and the numbers are projected are based on each factor being executed correctly...

99.85% effective is like saying, 15 in a 10,000 go wrong... that is then 1 in 666 chance (rounded down) of things going tits up.

I think I am going to get stoned again tonight, so I might try and turn my transmission rates into:

... shag minutes
or
... per stroke

But then again, I might want to leave it there.

MrB

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nice guy (Guest) (76 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-06-02, 12:03 PM (CDST)
3. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
all this proves is I have awful luck .
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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-06-02, 02:38 PM (CDST)
4. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
I also believe that it can give us alot more than that. It puts it into perspective. We have alot of freaking out going on all the time on this board.

When you were first told about herpes, what did you do, if you are like me you probably freaked out in the following fashion.

Oh my god/what the fuck...

... how what why...

... will I ever be able to have sex again...

... and how likely is it that I can pass it on to another person...

Followed by various states of unpleasantness, which result from the fact that you have an STD for the rest of your living natural life. It's shit.

BUT, when you realise that the desease is a 'desease of stigma and ignorance', then you are still left with the dirty feeling of I have an STD.

Then you learn stuff, all that you can, then you quickly realise that if this wasn't an actually STD, 99% of your bad feelings wouldn't exist. Then you think, WTF,


1 in 30,000 transmissions/shag rate


The symtpoms don't even bother me, the only thing that ever bothered me after my first OB was all the 'crap' that goes with it.

BASICALLY IT WAS A STATEMENT WHICH REDUCED THE CRAP TO IT'S REAL PROPORTIONS...

... a tiny little piece of pooh...

I found it quite a calming bit of number play, and puts alot of the histeria and panic that we have felt and have seen on this board into perspective.

'catch you on the flip side.

MrB

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CAT11 (1722 posts) Click to EMail CAT11 Click to send private message to CAT11 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-07-02, 02:57 PM (CDST)
5. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
You have a great attitude.

And you make me laugh my ass off.

Shag rate.

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MizTree (1236 posts) Click to EMail MizTree Click to send private message to MizTree Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-07-02, 05:27 PM (CDST)
6. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Mr.B you are too funny!


Lets say....

20% of americans have genital herpes....

that's 50 million people....

x 1 in 30,000 ....

= 1,500,000,000,000 bonks!


Whole lotta shaggin' going on!

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Della (1154 posts) Click to EMail Della Click to send private message to Della Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-07-02, 06:47 PM (CDST)
7. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
>BUT - as with my stoners
>maths from last night, if
>one part of the puzzle
>is out of place, the
>whole thing comes down like
>a house of cards...

My human sexuality book calls it "perfect user rate v. typical user rate". I think withdrawal method had up to a 25% failure rate... throw the effing condoms away and just go with this! Feels waaaaaay better.


>99.85% effective is like saying, 15
>in a 10,000 go wrong...
>that is then 1 in
>666 chance (rounded down) of
>things going tits up.
>
>I think I am going to
>get stoned again tonight, so
>I might try and turn
>my transmission rates into:
>
>... shag minutes
>or
>... per stroke

Hilarious. It's rare that I encourage others to get stoned... but in this case: Get stoned. I'm dying to hear the results..!

~Della

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Tourmalinejade (Guest) (1 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-13-02, 02:15 PM (CDST)
8. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
I like your maths, MrB. Can you figure this one out for me?

If about 1 in 4 have HSV-2 and 90% of those don't know that they have it, and 70 % of new infections are caught from those who do not know that they have the virus, What's probability that any given sexual encounter with anyone who does not know him- herself to be HSV-2 positive (that is, anyone who is either negative for HSV-2 or who is positive but unaware) will result in exposure? Is there any way to figure that out?

TJ

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-13-02, 06:11 PM (CDST)
9. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
I think I see where you are going with this... so let's get on wiht it.

If 1 in 4 have gHSV2, and only 1 in 10 people realise they have HSV2, then:

22.5% of the population have gHSV2 without knowing,


2.5% of the population have gHSV2 and know.

(or as I say, 1 in 4 have it, but only 1 in 40 realise that they have it).

And 75% of people don't have gHSV

Whilst 80% of the people have oHSV1

Obvious, but I have to take issue with some of the figures, my understanding from recent studies and stats, is that

Anywhere between 18-40% of people have gHSV2 (US) BUT, this is massively related to other factors such as socio-economic backgrounds and all that. In one GUM clinic study in Paris, the female HSV2 infection rate was 69%... scarey!

It all depends on alsorts, I would say more like 1 in 5 have gHSV2, but it is as fair to say 1 in 4, and it does sound better (roll on self delussion), but the figure you quote is only an estimate.

Secondly, another study indicated that 10 - 20% of gHSV2 are aware of their status, 60 - 80% have 'Inapparent or MIS-diagnosed gHSV' and about 10 - 20% are 'classically assymptomatic'.

Furthermore, to figure out the average risk for the rest of the population is a weird concept. You cannot transmit herpes if you do not have it! Also, your figure of just 70% of new cases been as a result of sex with an unaware partner is interesting. I have personally read it to be 80% of new cases - plus, what the hell does that figure mean anyway.

Think about it, how can such a statistic be measured.

'hi unaware person who may just have given their partner gHSV, did you know you had this?'

'yer sure fucking thing - I'll admit one of the most selfish things I have ever done to a complete stranger - OF COARSE I DIDN'T KNOW YOU FUCKING FREAK' - I mean a person who has concealed it from their partner is hardly going to tell the truth to a stranger are they?

It's like how on earth do you get accurate data on that, and how can you prove someone knew before hand or not?

CAN WE EVER RELIABLEY USE SUCH A STATISTIC?

I think not - but if someone can show me some research I would be glad to look at the logic of it.

And, 39% of new gHSV cases are HSV1 related, which comes from say, 80% of the population who carry HSV1. AND, I would also need the figures of exactly how much sex is been had, on a 'bonk to bonk' basis. All of a sudden you can see that to make an estimate would require so many assumptions to be made, that any estimate would only be a mathematical assumption that wouldn't mean anything anyway. At least on my first one I can list the assumptions I made in a few sentances.

However, disclaimer up front - lets show you why it doesn't make sense:

if 80% of new cases are caused by 22.5% of the population...
then
2.5 % of the population must casue the other 20% of new cases

and that would suggest that having sex with a knowing gHSV2 carrier would make you about 3 times more likely to getting herpes than having sex with someone who doesn't know that they have it. True? I don't think so, but I bet the more symptoms you have, the higher the chance of transmission symptomatic or not...

BESIDES, if 80% of new gHSV cases are caught from people who do not know that they have it, where does the other 20% come from? Because according to one study, there is only an ~ 1 in 10 chance per annum of contracting gHSV2 from a gHSV carrier, no condoms, no antivirals, just abstaining during ob's. That just doesn't make sense either? I believe the figure to be relatively reliable, but that also makes the assumption that all gHSV2 sufferers are as equally aware and educated about the illness, the symptoms, not making mistakes, being equally motivated etc etc.. That figur is 'just' a little bit open to subjectivity aswell.

Does that mean that their is a high number of gHSV2 carriers knowingly infecting partners?

Do people just lie and say, 'nope, don't know where that came from', when they just ignore the issue and carry on regardless?

And where does the 39% of new cases being gHSV1 fit into the whole equation?

Does that mean that 80% of the population with oral HSV1 cause 39% of new gHSV cases?

You see, without knowing what we can't we, we cannot realy make sense of it. Perhaps in time.

BUT BUT BUT what if we carried on from where I left off? A 1 in 30,000 transmission rate, 50 million US people with gHSV, so that is like 150, 000, 000, 000 shaggings lead to 50,000,000 infected gHSV2 people.

I am guessing here, but 250,000,000 US citizens

so if a 1 in 30,000 transmission rate is likely (or even in the same ball park, these figures should tally up... watch this >>>

If there figure if a 1 in 30,000,000 shags/transmissions rate
then
150,000,000,000 shags are responsible for the 50,000,000 igHSV2 infected in the US

I am assuming that there are about 250,000,000 in the US
so therefor
the total number of bonks made by the US people is 600,000,000,000

That would indicate the average number of shags per head of population is 2,400 - in a life time (I think). Now that seems a little high to me, but it is only an average, there will be some higher and some lower...

BUT BUT BUT, if that 2,400 shags/life/US citizen is in the right ball park - which I think it is (as in within a decimal placing) then, that 1 in 30,000 transmission rate would to be within a factor of a decimal place.

However TJ, I can't help you with your question today because I am not stoned enough - I'll come back to it when I am monged...

'Trying to get a perspective'

MrB

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Juno1 (Guest) (5 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-13-02, 11:55 PM (CDST)
10. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Question--

How often do most of you have outbreaks of HSV?

I think anxiety and depression are directly proportional to frequency of recurrences.

I've noticed occasional euphoria, followed by crushing depression, immediately preceding my outbreaks. After years of herpes, I only have crushing depression these days, caused by 8 years of 10 outbreaks per month...I haven't found an antiviral that will suppress. I'm currently taking 250 mgs Famvir twice daily, and still having OBs. It's no way to live.

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Juno1 (Guest) (5 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Dec-13-02, 11:58 PM (CDST)
11. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Ten outbreaks per year, that is...sometimes twelve...follows my menstrual cycle, but stopping periods doesn't stop the outbreaks, as I have tried that also.
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yada yada (Guest) (5 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-16-03, 12:43 PM (CDST)
12. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Mr. Blobby, Hilarious post-

My first question is, where is everyone finding detailed information about the valtrex transmission study? Your post had male to female transmission rates, and I saw another (I think) that said something about a lot of the failures in the valtrex group being associated with a**holes that didn't take the drug every day. OK, that may be a bit strong, but I'd like to know anyway. Also, are the transmission cases associated with people who have had the disease a long time, a short time, have many outbreaks, what is the role of HSV-1 in the - partner, if any. The details make a difference!

Anyway, the reason I wanted to know is to sort of make a case for when I'm "back in the saddle again." The gist of it would be: I know I have this disease, I don't have OB's, I am on suppressives, I am willing to use a condom, so you're transmission rate is ........1/30000???, based on dope-smoking logic. Your option is to ditch me, head into the cruel world where you STILL have a 1/5 chance of running into a guy that is positive (People don't believe this, by the way.) Anyway, It is most likely (90+%) that he will not know it or not tell you if he does have it, which will give you a warm fuzzy but will make it less likely that you will use protection..... So, your risk of getting it, per boink, is 1/5* X * Y * Z....., unless you insist on getting a western blot or pockit, and lets be honest you aren't going to do that...... The idea is that the sexual world is full of risk and that the risk of getting the disease from a low-OB, valtrex-taking, condom-wearing guy could be approximately equivalent to the risk of getting it from an unknown quantity.....

Also, could make use of the fact that so many of the transmissions in the valtrex group were asymptomatic. Since most people live in such a wonderful state of bliss regarding this disease, didn't I just essentially vaccinate the girl if she isn't asymptomatic??? What is the chance that she would ever become symptomatic or get the disease from another person?????? Of course, she could give the disease to another person, but what are the chances that that person would be symptomatic (I'm assuming low viral load here..... again some more detailed information from the control group would be of help, i.e. did the people who developed symptomatic herpes come from partners who had lots of OB's and vice-versa??))

So, Mr. Blobby, smoke a bowl and get back with us. Any other comments are welcome!

Regards,
Yada Yada

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windy (3040 posts) Click to EMail windy Click to send private message to windy Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-16-03, 01:01 PM (CDST)
13. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
Here's a link to a report about the Valtrex study. The actual study is due to be published in about a month or two.
http://boards.webmd.com/roundtable_message/2882219

Sorry to say it, but 1/30,000 is a pipe dream. Valtrex suppression cut the chance of transmission by about 50%, and it made it more likely that the transmission would be asymptomatic.

About half of those who seroconvert without symptoms will develop symptoms within a few months. (I think that number is right. It comes from another study.)


Happy reading,
windy

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-17-03, 03:40 PM (CDST)
14. "No pipe dream..."
Pipe Dream perhaps, but, even if I am out by two decimal places (which is in itself a pipe dream) you are still looking at a 1 in 300 chance, only twice as likely as getting pregnant whilst using the pill and a condom... hmmmmmm.

So, by how much is this a pipe dream? I am out by a hundred times? 10 times? And how many bonks per a lifetime are you going to realistically have? 4000?

The point being, that in the world of numbers, herpes doesn't merit the stress it causes, that was the point of the initial post - and that is no Pipe Dream!

Take care

MrB

PS Stopped smoking the dope as of New Year...

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Rajah (5458 posts) Click to EMail Rajah Click to send private message to Rajah Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-17-03, 10:06 PM (CDST)
15. "Only 4,000 ??"
I have just done the math and, while I didn't carve notches on the bedpost to keep track, I think that, with being married to my nympho first wife for 27 years, I am well past 4,000. I'm with my new honey now for four years, too, but the pace has slowed down now, thank goodness.

Here's the math: 27 yrs X 365.25 days/year = 9862 days. Average roughly one bonk a day, a few days none, some days more than once. Figure a little time out for having 5 kids, then add in some since getting with my new gal. The count has to definitely be more than 10,000 bonks and I think I still have some good ones left, too. I certainly hope so.

Rajah

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-18-03, 09:22 AM (CDST)
16. "within one decimal place..."
LMFAO,

Rajah... I just couldn't do it for 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, for 40 years! For numerous reasons...

Let's say we have ~ 40 years of shagging (average and approximate)....

I couldn't do it for 4 weeks a month with my girlfriends becaue they tend to have that whole period thing going on. I wouldn't even think about 'finger painting' when she is in that mood... hell, I'd rather be out playing soccer... less shouting and aggression!

Another thing as well is that sex for me goes into the hours time frame, I am not boasting at all, but all my girlfriends have commented on that - so maybe it adds up to the same in shagging hours/week - who know?. I personally don't have that much time for 7 good sessions a week... I don't know, this is all just semantics really... here's how I got my numbers...

40 years x 50 weeks x 4 times/week = 8,000

I halfed that because of things such as periods, being single, illness, being apart (work and play), arguements, stress and all the other things that make life interesting. Besides, I think it is obvious from our posting styles that you are probably alot more emotionally secure and comfortable with constant full scale intimacy than I am... which in itself will affect the numbers.

I think most people would be in the 5000 mark for a life time... some less, some more, but on average I think it is at least in the right ball park - definately within one decimal place! Besides, I don't mind saying that... perhaps, I may not be the ultimate Cassanova

Take Care

MrB

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Rajah (5458 posts) Click to EMail Rajah Click to send private message to Rajah Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-18-03, 01:24 PM (CDST)
18. "I'm inclined to agree with that in general.."
I think mine was an unusual case. Not all women are that obsessive and aggressive about it, thank goodness. There is a happy medium.

The doctor, who both myself and my first wife went to, said to me one time, "Do you have a big life insurance policy?" I said, "No, why?" The doctor replied, "I just wondered. I think she is trying to kill you with sex. She sounds like every man's dream....for about two weeks."

Like I said, I'm much happier now.

Rajah

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Someone (Guest) (237 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-18-03, 10:21 AM (CDST)
17. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
<Of course, she could give the disease to another person, but what are the chances that that person would be symptomatic (I'm assuming low viral load here.....>

Just an interesting bit of info here that can go down in the records books, I got it from someone who is "asymptomatic" who got it from someone who was taking suppressives, and I am definitely not asymptomatic. I already had HSV-1 in my system and that apparently offered no protection whatsoever. Also of interest, I am someone who almost never gets sick including colds.

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JJJ25 (168 posts) Click to EMail JJJ25 Click to send private message to JJJ25 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-19-03, 03:19 PM (CDST)
19. "RE: 1 in 30,000 chance of transmission"
I think there are a few threads that touch on similar subjects than this- IN the UNDER 25 forum I have replied in length to MrBlobby's Statistical and Moral disc. an telling a casual partner---

I don't know the numbers, but no matter how small the odds are compared to sex with someone who doesnt know they have it, I'm not sure it matters- even if you hadnt had on OB in 30 years.
The medical community is very black and white in the way they reason this stuff.

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MrBlooby (Guest) (3 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-22-03, 11:59 AM (CDST)
20. "just had another thought actually... pipe dreams"
If transmission rates per year is 1-4% when using the three methods of protection (AntiV's, Condoms and no sex on outbrakes), as per one study (even if you extrapolate out the 8 month study and throw in other measures that weren't used - ie 100% condom use)...

... and that experiment I believe (don't know for sure) would have been done with an average of over a hundred bonks in the year time frame... then

1 in 25 (4% seroconversion) divided by 100 = 1 in 2,500

So to say 1 in 30,000 is a pipe dream is not true, becuase from the above it can easily be said that the risk is about from

1 in 2,500 to 1 in 10,000

We often beat ourselves up about HSV, but don't go using good stats against me or saying that they are pipe dreams - they aren't... regardless of our fears.

MrB

PS Pill + Condom = 1 in 667 failure rate... perspective kicks arse!!!
PPS this was to an above comment - not JJJ

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windy (3040 posts) Click to EMail windy Click to send private message to windy Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-22-03, 04:53 PM (CDST)
21. "RE: just had another thought actually... pipe dreams"
LAST EDITED ON Feb-22-03 AT 04:57 PM (CST)

Mr. B,

I have to concede that your math is correct, and I aplogize if my "pipe dream" comment was harsh. But I'm still going to argue some of your assumptions. The estimate of 1-4% for a yearly transmission rate might be a bit low. Based on the information that Terri Warren gave, it looks like the yearly rate in the Valtrex group was 1.5% f to m, and 5.3% m to f. We'll know for sure when it gets published.

Also, I'd argue that once you start getting beyond 100 bonks/year, you start running out of days to avoid contact when there might be symptoms. I would further argue that if you try cramming multiple bonks into a day to get the numbers up, you're more likely to get an ob from all the friction. So I think there's an upper limit to your estimates. It'll be interesting to see if there's a correlation between transmission and frequency of sexual activity. Earlier studies have conflicting results on this.

The other thing I want to see is the numbers on condom usage and compliance with meds. Preliminary info suggests that missing doses increased the odds of transmission. So the numbers might look even better among those who were consistent with precautions.


Best regards,
windy

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Feb-22-03, 08:17 PM (CDST)
22. "good thoughts"
I totally get your multiple sex in a day theory... the first time me and my ex-herpertrator had sex unprotected (after that now seemingly useless and benign safe sex talk) we went 6.5 hours out of 8... and 8 days later I went down like a pair of panties in a whore house.

Also, I was adding in the m-f transmission factor of condoms... I have read that they can have upto an estimated 12-fold reduction effect on m-f transmission (and in the study I referred to above, condoms weren't a pre-requisite). I didn't mean to whine on so much, I don't think it was to do with my belief in my mathematical abilities - I just hate to be wrong (damn I should get over myself!).

Anyhow, all of a sudden I feel more in control about my herpes... I mean - I am somewhere within the right ball park:

1 in 2000 bonks

1 in 10,000 bonks

1 in 5,000 bonks

1 in a 1000 bonks

It has to be somewhere arround there (and yes the 1 in 30,000 was the upper limits by my calculations - more of a headline grabber)... and if it is - well, I have never got too upset about the possibilities of getting a bird pregnant whilst using a condom and her being on the pill... hell, even with her just being on the pill - but what the heck...

... Once bitten twice shy

MrB

PS I also think the 4th rule of transmission reduction should be some bloody good lube (atro-glide or something) and no bonk-fest marathons - just get the toys out and go 'oral-tastic' on one another

PS can you get a lube that kills the herpes virus whilst giving the lubrication...? Now I bet that that would be affective!

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MrBlobby (Guest) (239 posts) Click to check IP address of the poster
Jul-14-03, 08:40 PM (CDST)
23. "Can I nominate my own thread for the HOF?"
Just bumping my own thread back to the top for any newbies who may need some perspective on how to look at the reality of the situation... help them to be a little less neurotic about it...

Take Care

MrB

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Rajah (5458 posts) Click to EMail Rajah Click to send private message to Rajah Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
Jul-14-03, 10:07 PM (CDST)
24. "Sure.. No reason why not."
I've got to wonder how many folks look there.

Please let us know how we can help you further.

Good luck,

Rajah

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